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Ecuadorians electing new president, choosing between an heir to a banana empire and an attorney_我的网站

A |     　　中东海湾国家航运业正在使用“隐身”战术穿越被伊朗封锁的霍尔木兹海峡，以将石油资源运输到国际市场。载有数百万桶原油的油轮在接近这一咽喉要道时，会从屏幕上消失，但在数小时后便在海峡另一侧重新出现。    CARACAS, Venezuela -- Frightened by unprecedented violence on the streets and within prisons, Ecuadorians have a universal demand for the president they will choose Sunday — safety.The runoff election in the South American country pits an heir to a banana empire, Daniel Noboa, and an attorney, Luisa González. Both have limited governing experience and will undoubtedly have their work cut out.The election comes as more Ecuadorians become victims of drug-related violence that erupted roughly three years ago and intensified in August, when a presidential candidate was assassinated in broad daylight. People continuously watch their backs and limit how often they leave home. The uneasiness even pushed Noboa to add a bulletproof vest to his daily outfit.Whoever wins with a simple majority of votes will govern for only 15 months, until May 2025, which is what remains of the presidency of Guillermo Lasso. He cut his term short when he dissolved the country’s National Assembly in May as lawmakers carried out impeachment proceedings against him over alleged improprieties in a contract by a state-owned company.Lasso, a conservative former banker, clashed constantly with lawmakers after his election in 2021 and decided not to run in the special election. Under Lasso's watch, violent deaths soared, reaching 4,600 in 2022, the country’s highest in history and double the total in 2021. The National Police tallied 3,568 violent deaths in the first half of 2023.“Security affects us all, and whether poor or rich, no one is safe from criminals anymore,” housewife Ximena Flores said ahead of the runoff election. “Do you think that a new president will be able to do something in such a short time? I think not. It will be a new disappointment for everyone.”The spike in violence is tied to cocaine trafficking. Mexican, Colombian and Balkan cartels have set roots in Ecuador and operate with assistance from local criminal gangs.Voting is mandatory in Ecuador for people ages 18 through 64. Those who don’t comply face a fine of about $45. Polls were to close in late afternoon, and results were expected Sunday evening.Noboa and González, both of whom have served short stints as lawmakers, advanced to the runoff by finishing ahead of six other candidates in the election’s first round Aug. 22.Noboa, 35, is an heir to a fortune built on Ecuador’s main crop, bananas. His political career began in 2021, when he won a seat in the National Assembly and chaired its Economic Development Commission. He opened an event organizing company when he was 18 and then joined his father’s Noboa Corp., where he held management positions in the shipping, logistics and commercial areas.González, 45, held various government jobs during the decade-long presidency of Rafael Correa, her mentor, and was a lawmaker until May. She was unknown to most voters until Correa’s party picked her as its presidential candidate. At the start of the campaign, she said Correa would be her adviser, but she has recently tried to distance herself a bit in an effort to court voters who oppose the former president.___Associated Press writer Gonzalo Solano in Quito, Ecuador, contributed to this report.。　　根据航运追踪公司Kpler的数据，过去两周内通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只中，约80%都是以这种方式完成通行：关闭自动识别系统（AIS）应答器，并尽可能远离伊朗，沿阿曼一侧航行。　　其结果是，这一隐形航运行动，正在帮助维持海湾地区的石油对外供应，并防止本已严峻的能源危机导致国际原油价格进一步飙升。　　希腊船籍的巨型油轮“Kiku”号的航程展示了该系统的运作方式。

B | 　　在卡塔尔的梅赛伊德港口装载原油后，这艘巨型油轮穿越霍尔木兹海峡，于7月31日航行至迪拜附近海域时，其AIS信号突然消失。次日上午10点，Kiku号重新出现在霍尔木兹海峡的另一侧。　　它由此完成了一次“隐形”通航，这是由美军支持的夜间穿越系统的一部分，旨在降低被伊朗无人机攻击的风险。　　海湾地区的石油公司已租用船只，将石油运送至霍尔木兹海峡，随后将货物转运至在阿曼湾等候的其他油轮上。这些油轮随后将石油运往世界各地的客户。　　据估计，过去两周霍尔木兹海峡80%的油运量依赖“隐形运输”。　　此外，关闭AIS系统还带来了一个值得注意的后果：传统的船舶跟踪数据可能会大大低估实际通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油量。

C | 　　美国能源部估计，通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油流量在日均800万至900万桶之间——这大约是一些依赖应答器数据的华尔街分析师和追踪服务机构所推测数值的两倍。　　根据《纽约时报》援引分析师的数据，仅7月份，使用美国保护航线的油轮每天从阿拉伯湾运出约500万桶石油。　　但美国为此付出了代价——维持南部航道的运转依赖着高成本。　　美国中央司令部动用了军舰、直升机和飞机，以及能够拦截伊朗无人机和导弹的武器。据中央司令部称，已协助超过1000艘船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。

D | 　　目前约有20艘美国军舰在阿曼湾活动，而维持航母和驱逐舰的长期部署正变得越来越困难。　　总体来说，这一“隐身”运输方案只能被视为权宜之计，而非根本解决方案。它无法永久替代霍尔木兹海峡的航行自由，但的确为世界石油市场争取到了宝贵的缓冲时间。（文章来源：财联社）。

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